Panagiotis Karadimas (National and Kapodistrian University of Athens), "The Epistemic Impossibility of Economic Calculation"
Synthese, 2023
“Beware of Government’s Ignorance”
Mr. Sanctimonious discusses with Mr. Agitateless a novel version of the famous economic calculation problem. For more on the issue one can check out my Synthese piece: https://philpapers.org/rec/KARTEI
- Mr. Sanctimonious: Look at the traffic jam on this avenue, government really needs to take action to fix this.
- Mr. Agitateless: What do you think it should be done?
- Mr. Sanctimonious: There are a number of measures they could take: from banning some types of cars entering certain streets, to enhancing public transportation. I am sure there are several other interventions to be made.
- Mr. Agitateless: Which one do you think would be the most effective one?
- Mr. Sanctimonious: I don’t know, I’m not an expert! But I guess governments will take heed of expert advice to address it.
- Mr. Agitateless: You seem to suggest that expert advice would be epistemically superior to yours. Is that what you just insinuated?
- Mr. Sanctimonious: Sure.
- Mr. Agitateless: How can you be so sure?
- Mr. Sanctimonious: Oh, come on! The experts that advice decision-making are knowledgeable individuals: they have all the necessary theoretical and empirical knowledge—as this is described in scientific models—and they can use it to make scientifically-informed recommendations.
- Mr. Agitateless: I’m afraid you’re overplaying your hand here. Scientific models are, at best, only approximately accurate. They describe the big picture but it does not follow that they describe every nook and cranny of our world. Hence we cannot be quite sure that such theoretical knowledge can capture the particular circumstances related to this particular avenue.
- Mr. Sanctimonious: Even if that is so, I do believe that implementing even an ill-informed policy would significantly improve the situation. Just look at the congestion! I am sure drivers and pedestrians are fed up with that!
- Mr. Agitateless: You cannot know that, either. Enforcing a policy that is based only on partial knowledge of the particular circumstances is no more than a bet: it may work out or it may be a disaster. Moreover, you can’t really know the preferences of the individuals who drive on this avenue on a daily basis, unless you interact with them frequently. Do you?
- Mr. Sanctimonious: No. I don’t even live here. But it does not require a stretch of imagination to claim that these people are done with that!
- Mr. Agitateless: You may be right, but that’s an assumption: you bestow your own preferences upon others and you contend that other individuals are having the same priorities as you. It is perfectly possible that these people, or at least a great chunk of them, pay little attention to the issue of traffic congestion and they would prefer government to regulate on other issues.
- Mr. Sanctimonious: I see your point. However, you seem not to be taking into account the great technological progress that is being made. I mean, even if in the past we lacked the tools that would enable us to acquire knowledge of individuals’ preferences and of the particular circumstances, we can now use the ever-developing Artificial Intelligence systems (AI systems) to solve this.
- Mr. Agitateless: Again, that would not substantially improve the situation. You just said that you do not live here and similar is the case with most politicians: they proceed to regulations that impact on local settings without having direct access to these local settings. Assume now that you are offered a data-set induced by an AI system that describes individuals’ preferences in this area. How can you know that there are no further events that are related to individuals’ preferences and which have gone unnoticed by the AI-system?
- Mr. Sanctimonious: That is not likely to happen. After all, these systems update regularly and so they will capture nearly everything.
- Mr. Agitateless: Even if that is so, you have no good grounds to argue that no other events occur. You simply work with the data model.
- Mr. Sanctimonious: You are right. But as I told you I’m not an expert. A politician would work with the data model plus the theoretical model—this would eliminate knowledge gaps.
- Mr. Agitateless: Not at all! The problem is not that politicians lack theoretical knowledge for they already have such a type of knowledge at their disposal. The problem is that they lack direct access to local settings and hence they are epistemically worse off in comparison to individuals that interact therein. So the situation you are describing does not address the issue: we still lack direct access to the local world and we are still left with direct access only to various types of models.
- Mr. Sanctimonious: That sounds quite horrifying. Are governments ignorant?
- Mr. Agitateless: To put it mildly, they are less-than-fully informed. I think you and many other people I know who constantly call for government action need to take this under serious consideration.
- Mr. Sanctimonious: You seem to be right on that front. Politicians would better admit their ignorance on some subject matters, instead of presenting themselves as omniscient.
- Mr. Agitateless: I wouldn’t disagree but that’s a whole other story. I’m afraid I have to leave now—take care!
- Mr. Sanctimonious: Great to meet you!